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Australian data got their attention overnight as May's Trade Balance shortfall expanded more than economists expected, showing a shortfall of -A$965 million versus a narrow A$12 million surplus in the preceding month. The Australian dollar spiked down 23 pips at the release, though the bears didn’t succeed to remain downward momentum and the pair got back into its post-US session range within 5 minutes.
A 6% jump in imports drove the deterioration. Fuel imports caused the rise, gaining a big 17% as oil prices keep on rising. Imports of consumer goods and May’s Retail Sales figures rose. The progress in retail activity comes in the same month that economy lost -19.7k jobs. While some may understand this as analytic of Australians’ assurance in finding new employment and so make an announcement about the recuperative power of the labor market, it should be noted that some lag is to be expected before job losses translate into reduced disposable income expectations and depress consumption.
The pace of export growth declined lower nearly seven-fold to show a mere 1.5% expansion since April, when they rose 0.1%. Exports had to face the hard period first quarter due to the floods that causing damage to shipping routes. As weather conditions got better to begin the second quarter, producers of coal and iron ore trying to return to previous shipment levels, boosted export growth rate readings. May's figures suggest this catch-up leap has leveled off.
Going forward, a decline in consumer demand will cause import growth to slow down. The oil costs will likely continue to boost imports in the near term.
12:27
Posted on Jul-03-2008
