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This morning, the greenback came under the same bad selling heaviness as the European market opened for trading. The US dollar fell low against the Australian dollar, but quarter end flows quickly hit the markets, helping the dollar rally from all of its earlier losses. Although 2008 has been already a weak period for the dollar, the dollar’s act in the second quarter has been mixed. It is virtually unchanged against the Euro, down more than 5% against the Australian dollar and up more than 5% against the Japanese Yen. The worst currency so far is the Yen this quarter. This week will be a very busy week for the currency market. The ECB interest rate decision and the non-farm payrolls report come together to form the perfect storm for the US dollar. What ECB President Trichet says about future rate hikes will be more vital than the non-farm payrolls report, unless job losses are more than 100k. Chicago PMI was a little stronger than the market expected, but still in concretionary territory. This indicates that the national ISM manufacturing index should continue to trend lower. The Philly Fed, Empire State and Richmond Fed manufacturing indices have fallen. The rise in energy prices is now offsetting any simulative effects from a weaker dollar.
12:25
Posted on Jul-01-2008
