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The US dollar kept on doing the sell-off for the third consecutive trading as the Fed’s dissatisfaction remains over the market. Personal profits and personal expenses both improved more than expected. But the BEA included the tax refund in the personal profits estimate which means that it could reverse at the drop of a pin in the coming months. The PCE inflation numbers prove the existence of high inflation pressures even though they were a bit lower than the market expectation. The dollar is supposed to remain low in the coming week. It will be a contracted trading week with US traders off for the Independence Day Holiday. However, that does not promise there will be no volatility. With non-farm payrolls, service and manufacturing sector ISM numbers due for release, wait for some upright action in the US dollar. According to the recent layoff announcements, job losses will continue. Non-farm payrolls will drop for the sixth month in a row, and also the market’s -55K forecast is overly optimistic. Although the Federal Reserve has grown more hawkish, currency traders understand that there won’t be any actions between and now and then. That is why the comparative hawkishness of other central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia, will be focused.
British pound rose to a 2 month high as the current account deficit went down from –GBP12.2B to –GBP8.4B in the first four months. The beneficial change was not shocking with the better trade balance reports for the first three months of the year, but the detail of the report point out that it was because of a decline in net overseas income. First quarter GDP was revised downwards because of lower consumer expenses and lower services output. The central bank hopes that these numbers will laten development and bring down inflation. In coming week, housing market indicators, service and manufacturing PMI reports will be out. According to the rebound in the CBI industrial trends survey, manufacturing conditions may have in fact improved this month. Activity in the service sector on the other hand should worsen if consumer confidence does go up.
12:27
Posted on Jun-30-2008
