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Last week, the New Zealand dollar went ahead which caused a wide ranging dollar rally and US dollar received back its recent gains against the major currencies. The Australian and Canadian dollars are stuck at turning-point technical levels and ready for decline. At the same time, yen price action has pulled back below the last major layer of resistance. The Euro and Swiss Franc both get a long lead, though a lack of follow-though in last week’s anti-dollar moves shows they will fall in line in the near term.
EUR/USD
Strategy: Bearish below 1.5300, Targeting 1.5007.
Since last week, the positioning of Euro has been changed. We kept to a bullish bias on the EURUSD since the pair’s weak test at 1.60 and subsequent fall into a range between the 1.58 and 1.54 levels. Support is seen at an upward-sloping trend line that has held since August of last year. A Fib drawn along this move indicates 1.5398 as the 23.6% retracement level. A test of this support formed a brief rally last week, but momentum disappeared at the 1.56 level and the pair fell back. Currency pairs tend to exit a range in the same direction as they came into it, showing that the current consolidation favors the downside.
Other Strategies:
GBP/USD Strategy: Bearish below 1.9720, Targeting 1.9400
USD/JPY Strategy: Bullish against 107.38, Targeting 110.00
USD/CHF Strategy: Bullish against 1.0200, Targeting 1.0545
USD/CAD Strategy: Bullish Against 1.0131, Target 103.50
AUD/USD Strategy: Bearish against 0.9488, Target TBD
NZD/USD Strategy: Bearish against 0.7614, Target 0.7425
02:33
Posted on Jun-24-2008
